Papers

2023

“Mathematical Models for Forecasting Unstable Economic Processes in the Eurozone”, Mathematics, 2023, 11, 4544 (with A. Akaev, A.I. Zvyagintsev, A. Sarygulov, A. Tick,).

1

2022

“Growth Recovery and Covid-19 Pandemic: Comparative Analysis for Selected Emerging Countries”, Mathematics 2022, 10, 3654 (with A. Akaev, A.I. Zvyagintsev, A. Sarygulov, A. Tick, Y. Ichkitidze).

2

2021

“On the global time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic: Logistic modelling”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 175 (2021) December 121387 (with L.C.M.Miranda).

3

2021

“Forecasting the labor intensity and labor income share for G7 countries in the digital age”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 168 (2021) February 120675, (with A. Akaev, Y. Ichkitidze, A. Sarygulov).

4

2020

“Trends in aviation: Rebound effect and the struggle composites x aluminum”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 120 (2020) 120241.

5

2020

“The struggle SARS-CoV-2 vs Homo Sapiens: Why the Earth stood still, and how will it keep moving on”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 160 (2020) November 120264.

6

2020

“Aeronautics and Covid 19 – A reciprocal cause and effect phenomenon”, Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management 12 (2020) e3420.

7

2018

“Innovation output estimation method for a national innovation system: application to the BRIC countries”, Int. J. of Multivariate Data Analysis 1(3)(2018) pp. 261 – 279 (with L.C. Pelicioni, J.R. Ribeiro, R.A. Scarpel, M.C.N. Belderrain, and F.C.L. de Melo).

8

2018

“Space Propulsion: a Survey Study about Current and Future Trends”, Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management 10 (2018) pp. 1 – 23 (with M.C.V. Salgado and M.C.N. Belderrain).

9

2018

“Specifying technology and rebound in the IPAT identity”, Procedia Manufacturing 21 (2018) pp. 476 – 485 (with C. Magee).

10

2017

“A Simple Extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 117 (2017) pp. 196 - 205 (with C. Magee).

11

2016

“High-altitude platforms – present situation and technology trends”, Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management 8(3) (2016) pp. 249 – 262 (with F. D’Oliveira and F.C.L. de Melo).

12

2016

“A Changing Scenario: The NewSpace Agenda”, Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management 8 (1)(2016) pp. 1-6.

13

2015

“R&D Licensing Strategies: Do they Influence the Start-ups Growth?”, International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business 25(2) (2015) pp. 148 - 170 (Special Issue on ‘Entrepreneurial Challenges in the 21st Century Current Research and Future Avenues’) (with D. Pereira and J. Leitão).

14

2014

“Decision Support in the Investment Analysis on Efficient and Sustainable Street Lighting”, Technologial Innovation for Collecive Awarenes Systems (2014) pp.345 – 352 (with J.A. Lobão and J. Catalão).

15

2014

“Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from decreased losses in the conductors of an electrical installation”, Energy Conversion and Management 87 (2014) pp 787 – 795 (with J.A. Lobão and J. Catalão).

16

2014

“Influence of cable losses on the economic analysis of efficient and sustainable electrical equipment”, Energy 65 (2014) pp. 145-151 (with J.A. Lobão and J.P.S. Catalão).

17

2013

“The Recent Crisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory”, Journal of Globalization Studies 3(2)(2013) pp. 26-58.

18

2012

“The Struggle for Space: Past and Future of the Space Race”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(2012) pp.963-985 (with F. Melo, M.C. Salgado, M.L. Gregori, J. Ribeiro and C. Devezas).

19

2012

“Technological Innovation and The Long Wave Theory”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 79 (2012) pp.414-416 (with H. Linstone).

20

2012

“Effect of calcium aluminate cement on the thermomechanical behaviour of refractory castables”, Ceramics International 38 (2012) pp. 3483 – 3488 (with A.P. Silva, D.G. Pinto e A.M. Segadães).

21

2011

“How Many Singularities are Near and How They Disrupt Society, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78 (2011) 1365-1378 (with C. Magee).

22

2010

“On phase transitions, catastrophes, and sudden changes”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77 (2010) pp. 1412-1422.

23

2010

“Crisis, Depressions, Expansions – Global Trends and Secular Analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77 (2010) pp.739-761.

24

2010

“Designing particle sizing and packing for flowability and sintered mechanical strength”, Journal of the European Ceramic Society, published on line, February 2010, (with D.G. Pinto, A.P. Silva, A.M. Segadães).

25

2010

“Exploring the Use of Cork Based Composites for Aerospace Applications”, Materials Science Forum, vols 636-637 (2010), pp. 260-265 (with J.M. Silva, L. Gil, C. Nunes, N. Franco).

26

2010

“Influence of Surface Area on the Flowability Behaviour of Self-Flow Refractory Castables”, Materials Science Forum, vols 636-637 (2010), pp. 124-129 (with D.G. Pinto, A.P. Silva, A.M. Segadães).

27

2010

“Cork Agglomarates as an Ideal Core Material in Lightweight Structures”, Materials and Design 31 (2010) 425-432 (with J.M. Silva, A. Silva e L. Gil).

28

2008

“MPT Influence on the Rheological Behaviour of Self-Flow Refractory Castables”, Advanced Materials Forum IV, Vol.587-588 (2008), pp.133-137 (with A.P. Silva e A.M. Segadães).

29

2008

“Energy Scenarios: Toward a New Energy Paradigm”, FUTURES 40 (2008), pp 1-16 (with D. LePoire, J.C.O. Matias e A.M.P. Silva).

30

2007

“Political Globalization is Global Political Evolution”, World Futures 63 (2007), pp. 1-16 (with G. Modelski).

31

2007

“Consumption Dynamics of Primary Energy Sources: The Century of Alternative Energies”, Applied Energy 84 (2007), pp. 763-770 (with J.C.O. Matias).

32

2007

“The Two Old Matrices of World Discoveries: Portuguese and Chinese Historical Linkage”, Euro-Asia Journal of Management 17 (2) (2007), pp.177-185 (with J.N. Rodrigues).

33

2006

“Techno-cultural Evolution: Cycles of Creation and Conflict”, Book review, American Journal of Human Biology 18 (2006) pp. 870-872.

34

2006

“The Portuguese as System Builders in the XVth-XVIth centuries: A Case Study on the Role of Technology in the Evolution of the World System”, Globalizations 3(4)(2006), pp.503-519 (with G. Modelski).

35

2006

“The Singularity is Near”, opinion article on Ray Kurzweil’s September 2005 book, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73(2) (2006), pp 112-121.

36

2006

“Particle Distribution Design in a Self-Flow Alumina Refractory Castable Without Cement, Advances in Science and Technology 45 (2006), pp.2260-2265 (with A.P. Silva e A.M. Segadães).

37

2006

“Design of the Particle Size Composition of an Alumina Powder Matrix for Maximum Flowability and Minimum Water Content”, Advanced Powder Technology V, vols 530-531 (2006), pp 425-430 (with A.P. Silva e A.M. Segadães).

38

2006

“Statistical Modeling of the particle Size composition of an Alumina Matrix for No-cement Self-flowing Refractory Castables”, Advanced Materials Forum III, vols. 514-516 (2006), pp 604-608 (with A.P. Silva e A.M. Segadães).

39

2005

“Evolutionary Theory of Technological Change: State-of-the-Art and New Approaches”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005), pp.1137-1152 (special issue on New Horizons and Challenges for Future Oriented Technology Analysis).

40

2005

“The Growth Dynamics of the Internet and the Long Wave Theory”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005), pp.913-935 (with H.A. Linstone e H.J.S. Santos).

41

2005

“The International Handbook on Innovation”, Book review, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005), pp.111-115.

42

2005

“Mechanical Characterization of Composites with Embedded Optical Fibres”, Journal of Composite Materials 39 (2005), pp.1261-1281 (with J.M.A. Silva, A.P. Silva e J.A.M. Ferreira).

43

2004

“Optimization of the Packing Density of Alumina Powder Distributions using Statistical Analysis”, Cerâmica 80 (2004), pp. 345-354 (with A.P. Silva e A.M. Segadães).

44

2004

“Nature’s Magic: Synergy in Evolution and the Fate of Humankind”, Book Review, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004), pp.653-660.

45

2003

“Revolution Now! The New Scientific Basis”, Book Review, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 70 (2003), pp.579-582.

46

2003

“Power Law Behavior and World System Evolution: a Millennial Learning Process”, Working paper LAUR 02-5221, Los Alamos National Laboratory, August 2002. Published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70 (2003), pp.819-859 (with G. Modelski).

47

2003

“Fatigue Damage of Carbon-Epoxy Laminates with Embedded Optical Fibers”, Materials Science and Technology 19 (2003) 809-814 (with J.M.A. Silva, A.P. Silva e J.A.M. Ferreira).

48

2002

“Principles of Forecasting. A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners”, Book Review, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 69 (2002), pp. 313-316.

49

2002

“The Nonlinear Dynamics of Technoeconomic Systems: An Informational Interpretation”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 69 (2002), pp. 317-357 (with J. Corredine).

50

2001

“The Biological Determinants of Long Wave Behavior in Socioeconomic Growth and Development”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 68 (2001), pp. 1-57 (with J. Corredine).

51

1999

“What do you Think the Future Might Be? What Kind of Future Would You Like to See?”, Bulletin Nr. 8, Research Committee on Sociocybernetics, July 1999.

52

1997

“Kondratiev Waves Revisited”, Global Futures Bulletin #41, pp. 5-7 August 1997.

53

1997

“The Impact of Major Innovations: Guesswork or Forecasting”, Journal of Futures Studies 1 (2) (1997), pp. 33 - 50.

54

1996

“Materials Substitution: A Case Study for Advanced Ceramics”, Industrial Ceramics 16 (1996), pp. 41-53.

55

1995

“The New Technological Paradigm”, Papers de Prospectiva 4 (Nov. 1995), pp. 29-46.

56

1995

“Market Penetration Forecasting for Advanced Ceramics: A Technological Substitution Model”, New Horizons for Materials, P.Vicenzini (Ed.), p. 779-786, Techna, Faenza, 1995.

57

1984

“Aktivierungsenthalpien und Mechanismen der Unterkritischen Rißausbreitung in Aluminiumoxidkeramiken”, Zeitschrift für Werkstofftechnik (Materials Technology and Testing) 15 (1984), pp. 65-72 (with B. Ilschner e W. Kleinlein).

58

1983

“Shape Anisotropy of Ultrafine Magnesioferrite Precipitates”, J. of Magnetism and Magnetic Mat. 35 (1983), pp.121-122 (with R. S. De Biasi).

59

1978

“Anisotropy Field of Small Magnetic Particles as Measured by Resonance”, J. App. Phys. 49 (1978), pp.2466-2469 (with R. S. De Biasi).

60

1977

“Resonance Anisotropy Field of Superparamagnetic Particles”, Physica 86-88B (1977), pp.1425-1426 (with R. S. De Biasi).

61

1977

“Magnetic Anisotropy, Ionic Distribution and Composition of Magnesioferrite Precipitates in MgO: A Ferrimagnetic Resonance Study”, Physica 86-88B (1977), pp.1237-1238 (with R. S. De Biasi).

62

1976

“Ferrimagnetic Resonance Study of the Growth Rate of Superparamagnetic Precipitates of Magnesioferrite in MgO”, J. Am. Cer. Soc. 59 (1976), pp.55-56 (with R. S. De Biasi)

63

1974

“Crystal Anisotropy of Superparamagnetic Particles as Measured by Resonance”, Phys. Lett. A 50 (1974), pp.137-138 (with R. S. De Biasi).

64